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U-M Researchers Find Links Between El Nino Cycle And Weather In Great Lakes Region
New climatological research by a pair of University of Michigan engineers
suggests that peaks in the El Nino cycle correspond with surges in storm
strength, water levels and destruction on the shores of the Great Lakes.
Moreover, because of the intensity of the current El Nino, residents of the
Great Lakes region should consider bracing for what could be one of the most
destructive storm seasons on record.
Guy and Lorelle Meadows, researchers in the Department of Naval Architecture and
Marine Engineering, have found a correlation between El Nino years and elevated
storm wave energies in the Great Lakes. "It's ongoing research. We're still
trying to figure out the total impact of this," said Lorelle Meadows, a research
scientist.
Even so, they said, the correlation appears to be quite strong. "Wave
conditions on the Great Lakes, if we are right, may reach an all-time high in
terms of their intensity," said her husband, Guy Meadows, an associate professor
of naval architecture and marine engineering.
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The correlation was derived by overlaying decades of Great Lakes storm
data and water level fluctuations and comparing the results with El Nino
strengths and dates. The result is a well-tracked pair of curves that seem to
fluctuate in lock-step with each other. Great Lakes storm damage occurs when
wave energies are high and water levels are on the rise. These events
seem to follow major El Nino episodes.
The scientists are not certain how El Nino influences Midwestern weather.
However, one explanation is most likely: El Nino currents heat up the Pacific
Ocean, spawning more frequent, stronger storms. Evidence suggests that these
storms take paths over the Midwest, thus imparting a more direct impact on the
Great Lakes basin than during normal years. This in turn leads to increased
storminess and more powerful waves, which, in combination with high water
levels, can be devastating to coastal areas.
In 1984 and 1985, storms caused some $130 million damage to the Great Lakes
region. That period immediately followed the strongest El Nino in the last 20
years, according to the researchers.
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 Densities and spawning populations increase 6,318%
Hoff added" we haven't seen a disease, change or community fluctuation in
Ruffe to reflect the classic decline from peaking out that we've seen in
other exotics. Densities and spawning populations continue to increase."
The reports for Saxon Harbor and Bad River, Wisconsin, are even worse.
Bottom trawls for Saxon Harbor in '96 showed 1.74 Ruffe caught per hour,
while in '97 it was 13.73 per hour.
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 Ruffe graphic courtesy Mn Sea Grant confirmed Ruffe sightings
Living up to its name, the Bad
River was worse again. In '96, bottom trawls produced 4.65 Ruffe per
hour, while in '97 trawls harvested a whopping 292.17 Ruffe per hour.
That's an astounding 6,183% increase !!
Agencies involved in various studies being conducted on interactions
between Ruffe and yellow perch in the St. Louis River and Duluth Harbor
include USFWS, NBS, EPA's Environmental Research Lab, Wis. & Minn. DNRs,
and the U. of Minnesota.
The conclusion of USFWS' report stated "all colonies are likely to
increase in abundance and range expansion is likely to continue,
especially in Lake Huron."
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